What else could be expected in the sidelines of the COP – which world leaders will attend the Climate Action Summit on Dec 1-2? What else will they potentially talk about in bilateral or mini-lateral talks? Would success mean the climate crisis not being “over-shadowed” by the very many other crisis in the world today? How will Russia behave (given that they could block the decision on [the next host] (https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/2023/10/03/cop29-who-will-stage-the-un-climate-talks-in-2024/)) and what will that mean for “trust in multilateralism”?
The country I’m choosing to advise is Qatar a good choice would be a Ministry.
Here are the directions -> This week’s assignment:
As we prepare for our final work, which will be to assess “success” of the 28th meeting of the Parties to the United Nations’ Framework Convention on Climate Change, it’d be better to know what to expect. And because cop28 is approaching, there’s just a flurry of reports, analysis and recommendations swarming across the world wide web. Let us try to make sense of them.
As you review your work from this semester so far, try to think: on each of the major topics studied, what can decently be expected from this COP? Let’s try and be concrete.
Think “within” the traditional negotiations:
* Mitigation: end of fossil fuels? multiplication of clean energy (by three?)? Increase deployment of EVs? heightened efforts in Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Industry, etc? …?
* Adaptation: what exactly could “ambition” look like in terms of adaptation ? what should be in the “global goal” to be adopted at COP – see this excellent [6-pager from C2ES think tank] (https://canvas.brown.edu/courses/1092836/files/69732852?wrap=1) with concrete proposals? How could we address the [adaptation gap (UNEP report)] (https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43865/AGR23_ESEN.pdf?sequence=8)?
* Means of Implementation (finance, capacity building, technology transfers): is it about the trillions to shift our economies? is it about [putting down the entire Bretton Woods system of “development aid”] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/07/27/magazine/barbados-climate-debt-mia-mottley.html)? or about the broken promise of the 100 bn? And also: what about the next objective for 2025 onwards… should it be more money and if so how much? who should contribute to it – should the big emerging countries step in or should it remain limited to the old industrialized ones? Should we count the private philanthropists? what about the other private actors?
* Loss and Damage: what would be “success” there? How much money would be “good enough”? How do we evaluate the “cost” of climate change anyways?
* All of the above shall be addressed through the “Global Stocktake” (or GST), but what is that global stock take by the way? what shape will it take – is it just a [technical] (https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2023_09_adv.pdf) process, initiated 2 years ago? is it a high-level event at COP28 and if so, what should be its outcome(s)? what will this result in? what must we expect from our leaders and when?
For each of these questions, think: what is there to agree upon? who must deliver? by which amount? for whom? by when?
And then think again: who will/could support? who will/could oppose? do they have a say in the decision? do they have a role in the implementation? will they be impacted by the consequences of this decision being either taken or not taken?
Look also “outside” the realm of negotiations:
What can be expected there? Should success be defined “negatively”, as the absence of a catastrophic situation with journalists (press “control”), or climate activists (“riot suppression”) or migrant workers who built the COP’s infrastructure or even terrorist attacks for other purposes (yes, some people do envisage seriously that latter possibility)?
What else could be expected in the sidelines of the COP – which world leaders will attend the Climate Action Summit on Dec 1-2? What else will they potentially talk about in bilateral or mini-lateral talks? Would success mean the climate crisis not being “over-shadowed” by the very many other crisis in the world today? How will Russia behave (given that they could block the decision on [the next host] (https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/2023/10/03/cop29-who-will-stage-the-un-climate-talks-in-2024/)) and what will that mean for “trust in multilateralism”?
Moreover, how will we know what has been discussed? achieved? decided? committed by the thousands of delegates and observers there? Where should we look?
In order to answer those questions, if you were to be a staffer for the Special Envoy/Climate Minister for the country of your choice (please state which), how would you advise them to position themselves? should they attend COP28 and if so, what should they do there?
Your assignment for our next class on November 30th should be 3 pages long (no more, no less). You will address it to the World leader or Minister/Climate Envoy of your choice (it can be the one from your own country of origin, or any one else you specifically admire, or the contrary). Pretend that you are working for them, as a senior member of their team.
* 2 pages of analysis of all of the above questions, nicely formatted. Remember that a World Leader/Head of delegation has no time for bullshit: less is more. If you know your shit, it should not take 7 sentences to express it instead of just 1 or 2. Two pages is just enough to present each of the above topics with what is at stake, and your professional recommendations on how they should approach it, given the country which they represent.
* 1 page of recommended program: what should they attend in the [official program] (https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Overview_Schedule_COP_28.pdf)? any specific side [event] (https://seors.unfccc.int/applications/seors/reports/events_list.html?session_id=COP%2028) to which you will get them invited as an additional guest speaker? any specific bilateral talks you advice they should have (with whom, on what topic, expecting what information to be shared with or learned from their counterpart)?